The titles of the articles I previously wrote, "Web2 is the end, Web3 is the destination: Introduction to Web3" and "Web2 is the end, Web3 is the destination: Embracing Web3," may seem sensationalist, and some people even say that I am just using clickbait titles.
However, these two articles are about my personal experience transitioning to become a Web3 full-stack engineer. "Web2 is the end, Web3 is the destination" is my personal feeling and choice, and it cannot be considered a summary of the industry or advice for others - this article is the opposite.
Web2 is the end#
After reading these two articles, someone commented, "You didn't explain why Web2 is coming to an end." Indeed, the main reason has been mentioned before - these articles are about my personal experience, not advice for the industry and career development.
Furthermore, I have expressed my views on the decline of Web2 in a more comprehensive way before, in a small part of the article "The Last Advice to Frontend Engineers," and in a paid article in my column, "What Kind of Job Should I Look For?."
To ensure the coherence and completeness of this series of articles, I will now extract the main content from that paid article. The following text is based on it -
Mismatch of Supply and Demand#
During the Mid-Autumn Festival last year, while I was selling things with 🐷, I opened the BOSS Zhipin app to look for jobs.
After raising the expected monthly salary range and setting my preferred direction, I found that most of the low-level positions, which used to be everywhere, had disappeared. Instead, I saw higher-level positions such as Web IDE development, senior Electron development, frontend technical director, and frontend team leader.
The monthly salary range for these positions was roughly between 35k and 70k, which sounded great! But when I looked at the requirements, well, I didn't meet them...
Some people complain that it's difficult to find a job because the demand is saturated, while others lament that it's difficult to hire people because talented individuals are hard to find. At that time, I truly felt and understood the contradictions and gaps in this situation.
In the conventional job market, I found myself in an awkward position - if I worked as a low-level position, I would be underutilized and have low cost-effectiveness for employers. But if I worked as a key member of a large team, my abilities and experience were still lacking.
The above is one aspect of the problems I faced when looking for a job. The other aspect is the future prospects, which affect the stability (lifecycle) of job positions, companies, and industries - those who lack foresight will have immediate worries.
Is Frontend Dead?#
When I was organizing content related to frontend, I emphasized in the introduction:
"A 'frontend engineer' is a 'software engineer' who solves web-related problems using core web frontend technologies such as HTML, CSS, and JavaScript.
If you use technologies like Canvas and WebGL to do graphics, games, etc., you have already moved beyond the scope of 'web frontend' in the general sense. Their knowledge system is focused on graphics and is currently not within the scope of this topic.
Ourei's 'Self-Cultivation for Frontend Engineers'"
In a Zhihu answer about Yu Bo's departure, I mentioned:
"The new era is the combination of AI and the industry, with a significant increase in technological productivity, product reconstruction, and business reshaping.
As one of the functions of technical implementation, frontend will also usher in a new era. The value of experience technology carried by frontend will be recognized by a wider range of people and gradually become a basic understanding.
Yu Bo led the experience technology department of Ant Group, which has achieved remarkable results in terms of concepts, products, teams, influence, and business value.
Yu Bo became famous in frontend and achieved many technological products and the experience technology department. In the next industry cycle, I believe that Yu Bo will continue to have the ability, space, and sufficient talent to 'Make Something Better, Promote Something Change' and succeed in business and commerce.
As for frontend, the so-called 'problems' of frontend are mostly due to limited cognition. In the new era of AI productivity as the underlying engine, the new issue of delivering the value of interaction and experience may just be the beginning of the brilliance of 'frontend.' This certainly does not mean that it will continue to be fully carried out within the 2D pages we are familiar with in browsers.
Tangzhu 'How do you view Yu Bo's departure from the Ant Group Experience Technology Department?'"
Combining these two points, it reminds me of the "frontend is dead" discussion that was heatedly debated last year.
I expressed my views on this topic in a Zhihu question in 2020, "Does frontend have a future?," and elaborated more in detail in the article "Does Frontend Have a Future?."
After that year, I added some additional thoughts:
"In 5 to 10 years, there will be a large number of unemployed web developers, and the entry barrier will become higher. The salary increase will be lower, and it will no longer be as popular as a few years ago. People who have been working for more than 6 years should feel this.
This profession has already started to decline and it is time to consider what to do in the next 5 to 10 years and make timely changes and adjustments to the track.
What I want to say is that careers related to web development, such as frontend engineers and Java engineers, are coming to an end. It doesn't mean that there won't be any jobs, but it will become increasingly difficult to find them and the pay will be lower, moving further away from the term 'high salary.'
Twenty years ago, China entered the PC Internet era; ten years ago, China and the world entered the mobile Internet era together. During these twenty years, with the rapid growth of various Internet companies, the Chinese economy has risen rapidly and surpassed other countries.
However, at this stage, many things have reached a plateau. Ten years later, no matter how the Internet transforms, web development will not cause much of a stir and will have little to do with web development.
Currently, the future lies in data intelligence, immersive technologies, graphical technologies, computing combined with biology/life sciences, and some infrastructure aspects. In comparison, web development is just a 'bricklayer' job.
Any tool-related thing (such as technology, service, etc.) has a limited lifespan, so it is important to maximize the benefits and value they generate.
I have already told you the basic points, whether you can afford to use them is up to you -
- Get first-hand information and have a keen sense of the world's development and the challenges you may face and the space to make money, steps ahead of most people;
- The ability to learn quickly - reduce the time cost of mastering new tools and save more time to gain value;
- Have a discerning eye to discover suitable tools and landing scenarios - promote them quickly and vigorously, and use them to get promoted, get a raise, and make money;
- Expand as much as possible - increase and extend profits;
- Start the next cycle.
Ourei's thoughts"
The "One Point of Thinking" section in the article "The Second Year of Three Years Belonging to Me" further complements the above points and resonates with the article I wrote this year, "The Last Advice to Frontend Engineers."
Later, I reviewed all the articles and ideas mentioned above, as well as the article "The Future of Frontend" written by Ping Xia in 2019, trying to find a starting point for my job search.
The Cycle of Technology#
Whether it is Ping Xia's "The Future of Frontend," my "Does Frontend Have a Future?," or Tangzhu's answer on Zhihu, they all indicate that "frontend has a future," but this "frontend" is not the same as the "frontend" we know -
If you cling to the "traditional web frontend" represented by HTML, CSS, and JS, there is no future in the long run. Even if it is still based on these technologies, they are no longer important or have changed significantly compared to the present. It is equivalent to learning new technologies and mastering basic knowledge such as computer graphics.
The difference between these two "frontends" is that the former is closely tied to HTML, CSS, and JS, which are frequently used during development. The latter is dynamic and can be the traditional trio, WebGL, or even something completely unrelated to the web.
The fields related to "frontend" such as digital twins, immersive technologies, and smart spaces have nothing to do with the "traditional web frontend."
If we consider the 15-year development of frontend as Tangzhu mentioned (2008-2023), it is clear that the "traditional web frontend" is in a declining phase and won't "live" for many more years.
What technology the "next generation" of frontend will use specifically and how long its lifecycle will be is unclear. Will the "traditional web frontend" persist?
In addition, generational transitions do not occur sequentially but coexist. By the time most people become aware and take action, it may be too late to enter the game.
The Cycle of Fields#
These articles also suggest that "frontend" can develop in the fields of production and business - the former is about improving efficiency and reducing waste, while the latter is about expanding and open-sourcing.
As software engineering theories become more refined, problems encountered in using new technologies and tools can easily find solutions from existing knowledge and experience (cross-domain).
As a result, the "spiral" in the "spiral rise" will spin faster and faster, to the point where whether it spirals or not doesn't matter - if the problem remains the same or similar and the model and pattern for solving it haven't changed, the improvement of technology and tools will be meaningless.
The same applies to the business field - business is based on human nature, and human nature has not changed for thousands of years. It's just that after new technologies appear, everything that already exists is redone - another "spiral rise."
Of course, there may be some "exceptions," such as the emergence of "singular" things like appliances and computers.
Based on past experience, it is difficult to determine which field has a longer cycle between production and business. However, the decline in the production field may be accompanied by the decline of a specific technology - if "traditional web frontend" is no longer used, why bother with its infrastructure?
Limitations of the Articles#
These articles are written from a macro perspective and provide advice for an abstract group of people. They may have limited reference value for specific individuals - just like the problem of "old positions disappearing and new positions emerging" in society.
Speaking for myself, as a person who is older and at the intersection of generational transitions, I am skilled in "old era" technologies, and the specific technologies of the "new era" are still unclear. Moreover, the learning curve is high, and it takes a long time to reach a working level.
From the perspective of employers, they tend to prefer candidates with practical work experience and achievements. As someone who has just "switched careers," would they hire me as an intern? If they want interns, why wouldn't they hire someone who is young and obedient?
Web3 is the Destination#
To summarize the previous text briefly -
The future mainstream human-computer interaction technology may no longer be HTML, CSS, and JS. Even if they are still used, they may not be important or may be completely different from what we know now. It is necessary to learn new technologies and master foundational knowledge such as computer graphics.
Learning new technologies has a high learning curve, and it takes a long time to reach a working level. The specific duration of generational transitions is unclear, but it is better to enter the "new era" as early as possible.
It is evident to everyone that the traditional internet industry has been growing weakly in recent years. Most frontend engineers are proficient in "traditional web frontend" technologies, which are considered technologies of the "old era," and they work in business-oriented companies.
If their vision remains limited to Web2, from the perspective of technology cycles and the cycles of production and business fields, the prospects are limited, and there are only a few years left to "live."
Although working in technology-oriented companies is also an option, it is only available to a few technical elites. It has nothing to do with the majority of frontend engineers who are not highly skilled in technology.
For these frontend engineers, especially those who have been in the industry for more than 5 years, the "traditional web frontend" has become a burden that is difficult to get rid of. Continuing to stay in Web2 will soon lead to the end of their careers.
In "Questioning Web3, Understanding Web3," I provided a detailed description of my understanding of "Web3." It is clear to anyone that even if they only master "traditional web frontend" technologies, they can smoothly transition from Web2 to Web3.
Moreover, from the current development stage of the Web3 industry, Web3 can extend the professional life of frontend engineers who rely on "traditional web frontend" for at least 10 years. It is not an exaggeration to call Web3 their "destination," right?!
Conclusion#
Since I started writing articles related to Web3, there have always been comments saying that decentralization, blockchain, and Web3 are illegal, but when asked to provide specific legal provisions, they have nothing to say.
I want to ask: "In China, blockchain technology is being used in government agencies and internet giants. Are they openly breaking the law? Or is it that they don't understand the law?"
Those who recognize the current situation are wise, and those who understand the changes in the industry are heroes.
Other reading links for this article: Personal Website | WeChat Official Account